Beware of "Grey Rhino" Power Lithium Battery Production Expansion
1월부터 11월까지 우리나라의 신에너지 자동차 판매량은 299만 대로 전년 대비 166.8% 증가했습니다. 11월 1일 이후, 신에너지 자동차의 시장 침투율은 12.7%에 이르렀습니다. 또한 신에너지차 보급률이 임계점인 10%를 넘어서면서 신에너지차 판매가 월간 신기록을 경신하고 있으며 2022년에는 보급률 20%를 넘어설 것으로 예상된다.
The demand for power lithium-ion batteries on the vehicle side is also constantly jumping. Under the new development pattern, battery companies aimed at market trends and started a new wave of "capacity expansion". Ningde era, the output is expected to reach 320GWh by the end of 2022, and the output in 2025 is expected to exceed 670GWh; BYD, the planned output in 2025 will exceed 600GWh; AVIC Lithium Power, the planned output in 2025 is 500GWh, and the output in 2030 is 1TWh...
So, how do you view the expansion of power lithium-ion battery production? From December 14th to 15th, "The Sixth International Summit on Power Li-ion Battery Application (CBIS2021)" was held in Ganzhou, Jiangxi. Companies and institutions from upstream and downstream of the entire vehicle, power lithium-ion battery, materials, equipment and other industrial chains have conducted in-depth discussions on this topic.
전력 리튬이온 배터리 생산의 확대가 추세가 되고 있습니다.{0}}
2021년부터 전원 리튬 이온 배터리 개발의 두 가지 키워드는 가격 인상과{1}생산 확대입니다.
According to public information, as my country's leading power lithium-ion battery company CATL, the planned output in 2025 is expected to exceed 670GWh, and the output planning area involves Fujian Ningde, Sichuan, Qinghai, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shanghai and other places. BYD's production expansion speed is not as fast as that of CATL. According to preliminary statistics, BYD's planned output in 2025 is expected to exceed 600GWh, involving Guangdong, Qinghai, Chongqing, Hunan, Xi'an, Guizhou, Jiangsu, Hubei, Zhejiang and other provinces and cities. At present, AVIC Lithium Battery, which ranks third in the installed capacity of power lithium-ion batteries, also has a production plan of 500GWh in 2025. Yiwei Lithium Energy will build a production capacity of 200GWh in 2023. Guoxuan Hi-Tech's production plan in 2025 is 300GWh...According to the incomplete statistics of batteries in my country, since the beginning of this year, the newly planned output of domestic and foreign top battery companies has approached 2500GWh.
Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of the my country Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, emphasized that the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market has increased rapidly this year. This shows that with the continuous maturity of power lithium-ion battery technology, consumers' acceptance of electric vehicles has increased significantly.
최근 설치된 용량으로 판단할 때 Power Li{0}}Battery Application Branch의 데이터에 따르면 올해 1월부터 11월까지 중국 시장에서 설치된 전원 리튬 이온 배터리의 용량은 약 128.3입니다. GWh는 전년 대비 153.1%{6}{7}} 증가했으며 연간 설치 용량은 150GWh에 근접할 것으로 예상됩니다. 또한, 전지 기술의 관점에서 볼 때, 리튬 철 인산염 전지는 경제성과 안전성의 이점으로 인해 시장에서 선호되고 있습니다. 올해 1월부터 11월까지 중국 시장의 인산철리튬전지 설치용량은 64.8GWh로 처음으로 삼원전지 63.3GWh를 넘어섰다.
리튬 철 인산염 배터리의 비용 이점은 Tesla, Volkswagen, Daimler, GM, Ford, 현대 및 기타 국제 주류 자동차 회사를 비롯한 전 세계 많은 대형 자동차 회사의 관심과 호의를 끌었다는 점을 언급할 가치가 있습니다. 모두 인산철리튬전지를 도입하겠다고 밝혔고, LG신에너지, SKI 등 전지업체들도 인산철리튬전지 도입에 속도를 내고 있다.
Liu Yanlong pointed out that under the background of the reform of the global automobile industry and the tightening of carbon emission policies, the pace of electrification of mainstream car companies has accelerated, and the energy storage industry will also enter a stage of large-scale development. "Based on this judgment, the expansion of power lithium-ion batteries has also entered the fast lane. The domestic and foreign leading battery companies have all expanded their production by hundreds of GWh this year. In the future, the market demand for upstream materials of power lithium-ion batteries will also be 'rising all boats'. .We predict that the TWh era of power and energy storage battery demand will arrive before 2025."
Power lithium-ion battery "price surge" followed closely
The hot spot parallel to the expansion of production is the tide of price increases. Not long ago, the "battery shortage" of power lithium-ion batteries has not dissipated, and the topic of price increases has pushed the power lithium-ion battery industry to the forefront. Recently, many mainstream power lithium-ion battery companies such as BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Penghui Energy have issued price increase letters. According to media reports, due to the rising downstream demand for electric vehicles and energy storage, at the beginning of next year, the price of cylindrical lithium-ion battery cells will increase again by 5 percent -15 percent .
올해 초부터 전원 리튬이온 배터리의 상류 원료{0}}도 상승했습니다. 데이터에 따르면 2020년에 40,{2}} 위안/톤의 탄산리튬이 현재 210,{5}}/톤으로 상승했습니다. 육불화인산리튬은 2020년 100,{7}} 위안/톤에서 550,{10}}/톤으로 증가했습니다. 전해질도 2020년에 40,{12}} 위안/톤에서 120,{15}}/톤으로 증가했습니다. PVDF는 2020년 80,{17}}/톤에서 500,{20}}/톤으로 증가했습니다. VC는 2020년 200,{22}}/톤에서 400,{25}}/톤으로 증가했습니다.
중국 공과대학의 학자이자 베이징 공과대학의 교수인 Wu Feng은 신에너지 자동차의 판매 증가와 전력 리튬이온 배터리에 대한 수요로 인해 다양한 재료에 대한 수요가{0}있다고 강조했습니다. 전력용 리튬{1}}이온 배터리도 올해 초부터 탄산리튬 및 수산화리튬과 같이 크게 증가했습니다. , 양극, 양극, 분리막, 전해질, 육불화인산리튬 등 가격이 전반적으로 올랐고 일부 재료는 5~6배 올랐다. 수요와 공급 사이의 긴장이 두드러져 배터리 회사에 큰 비용 압박을 가하고 있으며 신에너지 자동차 산업에 도움이 되지 않습니다. 전반적인 비용 절감에 대한 요구.
Regarding the reasons for the increase in the price of upstream raw materials, Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the New Energy Vehicle Venture Sub-fund of the National Science and Technology Achievement Fund, analyzed three reasons. First of all, the quantitative easing brought about by the once-in-a-century epidemic in 2020 will bring about the inflation of global commodities. In the field of power lithium-ion batteries, it is inevitable that global energy prices and mineral prices have risen. Second, the sudden change in the supply and demand relationship and the insufficient supply of upstream materials for power lithium-ion batteries have led to a gradual increase in supply prices. Third, during the adjustment period of the industrial chain, the previous price reductions and delays by OEMs and battery factories on upstream material companies have led to frustrations in the motivation of upstream suppliers to expand production, and now it has evolved into a "retaliatory" price increase.
Wu Feng said that in the long run, lithium battery materials will face resource shortages, as well as nickel, cobalt and other resources, and the industry must take precautions. After years of development, my country's new energy vehicle and power lithium-ion battery industry has entered a critical period.
Fang Jianhua emphasized that my country's new energy vehicle industry has gone through three stages. The first stage is the savage rise stage from 2010 to 2016; the second stage is the adjustment and reshuffle stage from 2017 to 2020. A large number of companies are in this stage. Closing down; the third stage is the rapid growth stage starting in 2021.
산업 체인의 관점에서 볼 때 희소성과 국제 경쟁의 영향으로 인해 상류 코발트, 니켈, 리튬 및 기타 전력 리튬 광물 자원에 대한 수급 관계가 오랫동안 긴장될 것입니다.{0} }이온 배터리. 미드스트림 양극재와 음극재, 전해질, 격막 등은 주로 단기간 생산 부족의 영향을 받으며 1{2}}2년 안에 수급 균형을 이룰 것입니다. 다운스트림 전원 리튬 이온 배터리 공장의 경우 현재 실제 수요가 기존 출력과 일치하지 않고 유효 출력이 충분하지 않으며 기존 계획이 예상을 훨씬 초과합니다.
광란의 리튬 배터리 확장에 대한 냉정한 생각
Judging from the expansion plans of major power lithium-ion batteries, this round of expansion can be described as "crazy". Under this trend, we are asked to think coldly.
Judging from the 128.3GWh installed capacity of power lithium-ion batteries in my country's market from January to November, the market share of the top ten installed capacity exceeds 92 percent . Among them, the total installed capacity of CATL is about 65.93GWh, accounting for 51.39 percent of the month, and the total installed capacity of other companies is about 62GWh. In the face of such a huge expansion plan in the future, will the power lithium-ion battery industry chain have such a huge production demand?
"my country's new energy vehicles will have a compound growth rate of more than 30 percent in the future. This year is 3.4 million, next year is expected to be 5.1 million, and it will reach 9 million by 2025. This is a basic certainty issue." Fang Jianhua roughly According to calculations, if it is inferred from the number of 9 million new energy vehicles, the total demand for power lithium-ion batteries is only about 600GWh. In addition, even considering the demand for new energy vehicle batteries in overseas markets, the total planned volume of 2500GWh is in excess. "On the one hand, we need to think coldly when the industry is hot, and on the other hand, we need to consider the real demand, whether there is a mature technology behind the expansion, whether the management ability can keep up, and whether the supply chain can guarantee ."
Fang Jianhua said that the battery factory should consider at least these five factors when expanding production: the first real demand. "If my country's new energy vehicles reach 18 million by 2030. At present, except for the Ningde era, whether other battery companies can achieve a 5 percent share is already considerable. With the market share of power lithium-ion batteries unchanged, 10 million vehicles. The proportion of 5 percent of electric vehicles is only 500,000, and the installed capacity is only about 30GWh. And this is only obtained by competing with CATL, BYD, and foreign companies." In Fang Jianhua's view, the company is expanding In production, understanding the real needs is crucial.
둘째, 기술 프로세스의 안정성이 빠른 생산 확장을 지원할 수 있는지 여부. 전력용 리튬이온 배터리 생산 확대 이후의 상승 단계는{0}많은 인적, 재정적, 물적 자원을 필요로 하는 고통스러운 과정입니다. 따라서 공정 기술의 안정성 또한 특히 중요합니다.
Third, the management level. Fang Jianhua emphasized, "There are not enough people involved in the management of remote factories. Once the management is not in place, the consequences will be huge."
Fourth, whether the supply chain can be guaranteed. "The one who has the supplier wins the world. In the current supply chain, the company must advance and retreat together with the supply chain when expanding production. There must be a strong supply chain guarantee system."
Fifth, financial capital security. Fang Jianhua further explained that the blessing of the local government and market capital is only temporary. The company has not formed its own hematopoietic capacity, and without sufficient profits, it will not last in the process of expansion. "If there is no sustainable funding guarantee, this blind expansion will eventually become a 'gray rhino'."
